Intraday Forex Friday, September 17 (EURUSD, USDJPY, etc) Dollar headed for its winning week after retail sales boost & expectation of earlier Fed policy tightening.

This observation is made around 05:40 UTC today, with 30 minutes time frames. The Resistance and Support Line were constructed according to Fibonacci retrenchment. Any discussion is welcomed.

Shares steadied in Friday trading but are on course for a its weekly drop, subdued by worries about the global economic recovery, impact of the Delta strain, implications of elevated inflation and the upheavals in China.

Oil on track to to post fourth weekly gains, while gold were set for a second weekly loss.

The dollar meanwhile held it overnight gains after a raft of strong U.S. economic data rekindled expectations of an earlier policy tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The FOMC’s 2-day policy meeting is due to be held on Sept. 21–22 and could provide clues as to when the U.S. central bank will start withdrawing its asset purchases.

I also does analysis for some other currencies. Read more on the website on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS and DAILY MARKET NEWS.

[EURUSD]

  • The euro hit a three-week low of $1.17505 overnight and last traded at $1.17715.
  • The euro rose slightly on the day, but still meandering around yesterday’s low, as the riskier currency continued to be hit by the strengthening greenback following strong U.S. core retail sales and jobless claims data for August 2021, which pushed the T-note yields higher and was hawkish for Fed QE tapering.
  • The euro also weighted on the dovish ECB comments on Thursday. ECB Governing Council member Rehn said monetary policy is needed “to maintain favourable financing conditions for a sufficiently long period for the economy to continue its recovery and to offset the negative impact of the pandemic on inflation.”
  • Support awaits at 1.1733, which was a swing high in mid-August. It is followed by 1.1706.
  • While resistance is at 1.1822, the zone which has kept the currency pair down throughout the week. The next level is at 1.1849.

Important Levels to Watch for:​

  • Resistance line of 1.18224 and 1.18497.
  • Support line of 1.17339 and 1.17065.

[USDJPY]

  • The dollar bounced back to 109.837 yen, having gained 0.32% on Thursday and off Wednesday’s 6-week low of 109.113.
  • The rally in U.S. yields lend support to the greenback, while the Nikkei advancement on the day reducing the safe-haven demand for the yen.
  • The Bank of Japan is set to maintain its massive stimulus next week, as supply bottlenecks caused by factory shutdowns in Asia weigh on an economy already wobbling from the hit to consumption from the pandemic.
  • The yen has so far shown limited reaction to ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) leadership race, which will formally kick off on Friday ahead of Sept. 29 vote. The LDP’s parliamentary dominance means the party’s new leader will become prime minister.
  • Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it defended 109.115 support and rebounded. But upside is held well below 110.461 resistance so far. On the downside, break of 109.37 will argue that larger fall is resuming. Deeper decline should then be seen back to 109.115 support. And on the upside, above 110.204 will turn bias back to the upside for 110.461.

Important Levels to Watch for Today:​

  • Resistance line of 110.204 and 110.461.
  • Support line of 109.372 and 109.115.

[USDCHF]

  • The dollar’s strength was pronounced against the safe-haven Swiss franc, rose to hit a five-week high earlier today, on top of 0.86% jump on Thursday.
  • The dollar however pared its earlier gains to stood slightly lower, last at 0.92659 to the franc.
  • The Swiss franc extended its losses against the U.S. dollar at the opening today as the less risky currency continued to be hit by the strengthening greenback following strong economic data from the world’s largest economy.
  • Both U.S. core retail sales and jobless claims data for August 2021 surprised the market and continued to lift the greenback’s performance, on the likely of tempering expectations for a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the Q3.
  • The FOMC’s 2-day policy meeting is due to be held on Sept. 21–22 and could provide clues as to when the U.S. central bank will start withdrawing its asset purchases. Reduced central bank stimulus tends to lift bond yields, which also helps boost the dollar.
  • The Swiss franc meanwhile still holds some ground on its safe-haven appeal amid risk aversion on the rapid spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus and its impact on global economic recovery.
  • The USD/CHF has broken back above the previous resistance line, as strong bullish momentum has begun to drive the rally. Conviction will now be tested after the break, and it remains to be seen whether it can be sustained. However, the breakout of the consolidation range is significant.

Important Levels to Watch for Today:​

  • Resistance line of 0.93039 and 0.93390.
  • Support line of 0.91901 and 0.91550.

[GBPUSD]​

  • Sterling rose against the dollar on Friday, at $1.38027, bounced back from its 1-week low recorded yesterday.
  • The GBP/USD pair has stalled at the mid-range of the 1.371–1.390 trading range. Oscillations within range have narrowed with tighter price action suggesting that a breakout may be on the cards.
  • On the upside, GBP/USD needs to settle above the resistance at 1.385 to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. The next resistance level is located at 1.389.
  • On the other hand, for the support is located near 1.374, followed at 1.371.
  • Later today, traders will take cues from the UK macro releases of Retail Sales.
  • The dollar bullish mood also faces another test later on Friday with the release of University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, which surprised many investors last month by tumbling to a decade-low due to smaller income gains and higher inflation.

Important Levels to Watch for Today:​

  • Resistance line of 1.38571 and 1.38903.
  • Support line of 1.37496 and 1.37163.

For more currencies analysis and other insight into the market, read more on the WEBSITE or click on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS and DAILY MARKET NEWS

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Chief Analyst at Golden Brokers. https://goldenbrokers.my/en/blog

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Zulbahri Muhammad

Zulbahri Muhammad

Chief Analyst at Golden Brokers. https://goldenbrokers.my/en/blog

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